🇺🇳 Five reflections on UNGA78

Good morning from New York!

It is sadly the Intrigue team’s last day in New York, but I suspect the circles under my eyes can only get so dark before someone tries to capture me and return me to a Chinese zoo.

The manic energy of the last three days has subsided. I even feel a little sorry for the leaders addressing the General Assembly today - the hall has been, at best, one-third full since Wednesday. Today’s speakers will be lucky if they get that many.

We leave UN High-level Week a strange mix of being aware of the limitations and declining influence of the UN, but energised about the quality and quantity of people who’ve come to New York this week determined to solve problems. It’s chaotic and frustrating, and there’s plenty of disagreement, but I get the sense that everyone is here to try and improve things… well, almost everyone, isn’t that right, Mr Lavrov?

Before we dive in today, I’ve got a small favour to ask…

News

A good day’s work. President Zelenksy was a busy man yesterday, meeting with lawmakers, military leaders and President Biden in Washington. The Ukrainian President’s goal was to secure continued US support, and it seems he has Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell onside: “American support for Ukraine is not charity. It’s in our own direct interests — not least because degrading Russia helps to deter China.” (New York Times)

Little Rocket Man is still a problem. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol used his address at the UNGA to warn about Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin’s budding bromance. South Korea is worried Russia will help North Korea perfect a nuclear weapon in return for North Korean support for its invasion of Ukraine. Preventing North Korea’s nuclear aggressions would ideally be dealt with by the Security Council, but of course, Russia has a veto. (CNN)

A spicy Serbian speech. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić used his UNGA remarks to ask why “19 Western powers” attacked to help Kosovo “illegally secede from Serbia” to prevent a humanitarian crisis, “but are outraged when the Russian president uses the same phrases to justify his attack”. Oof, the less said about that logic, the better. (@journal_UN_ONU)

Put a fork in him; he’s done. Russian Ambassador to the UN Vassily Nebenzia complained that allowing President Zelensky to address the UN Security Council was a breach of protocol. The chair of the Security Council, Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, responded, “There is a solution for this. If you agree you will stop the war, then President Zelensky will not take the floor.” (@zelenskyyUA)

Vietnam hedging its bets. Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh made a surprise speech in Washington DC on Wednesday before travelling on to New York. During President Biden’s recent trip to Vietnam, the two countries agreed to upgrade their relationship to a ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’ (you’ll just have to trust me that’s a big deal in diplomatic circles). Expect Vietnam to invite President Xi to visit Hanoi soon as part of its general strategy of not choosing sides. (South China Morning Post)

The Canada-India plot thickens. US President Biden and other Western leaders raised the killing of a Canadian Sikh directly with Indian Prime Minister Modi at the G20. This suggests the intelligence that Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau is basing his allegations on came from within the Five Eyes intelligence alliance (US, UK, Canada, Australia, NZ). It still doesn’t explain why Trudeau chose to air the allegations this week, but I suspect it has a lot to do with Canadian domestic politics (anyone got any clues? Hit reply!) (Financial Times)

Five reflections from High-level Week at UNGA 78

1. Leaders’ language is changing

I’ve argued against analogising our global geopolitical situation to a ‘Cold War 2.0’ for a few years. So I was glad to hear Secretary-General Antonio Guterres open the General Assembly by saying, “there are obviously many competing interests and agendas in our increasingly multipolar world. But at a time when our challenges are more connected than ever, the outcome of a zero-sum game is that everyone gets zero.”

I also noticed a change in how the US is framing its own challenges. President Biden seemed to abandon his framing of a global battle between democracy and autocracy in favour of a more nuanced call to enhance regional cooperation and find common ground.

Finding solutions to the world’s problems requires seeing the world as it is, and I thought this was a step in the right direction.

2. COP28 is going to tell us a lot about global climate ambition

I wasn’t at the Climate Ambition Summit yesterday, but according to a conversation I had with an executive at a climate NGO, it was a bit of a fizzer. The energy was not good, not least because there was genuine outrage at UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s decision to roll back the UK’s green commitments.

Climate conversations have been drowned out by, amongst other things, President Zelensky’s whirlwind visit. I have also sensed slight apprehension about the upcoming Dubai-hosted COP28 meeting in November, and I know of at least one climate-related think tank that is very sensitive about its decision to take sponsorship from the government of the United Arab Emirates.

Climate folks have got two months to psyche themselves back up.

3. The other side of talking points

I used to be a diplomat, so of course I know that government officials coordinate on common talking points before significant events. I spent countless sleepless nights drafting great big binders of the damn things.

But this week was the first time I’d been on the receiving end of hearing the same few lines repeated over and over by different officials.

For example, on Monday, I heard Hillary Clinton say, “You cannot trust anything he [Putin] says, and I know that from personal experience. Ask Prigozhin if you can trust Putin”.

Then, on Tuesday, Zelensky said in his remarks at the Assembly Hall, “Evil cannot be trusted – ask Prigozhin if one bets on Putin’s promises.”

It’s a fantastic line. But by the time a US official said a version of the same thing at an event yesterday afternoon (with barely one-tenth of President Zelenksy’s conviction), it had really lost its punch.

I’m not saying sticking to talking points is bad - it would be far worse to have officials contradicting themselves all the time - just that it gets really boring after a while.

4. Time is not on the UN’s side

I can’t shake the feeling that the way the UN operates will prevent it from meeting many of the significant challenges of the future.

Climate change is the biggest collective action problem the world has ever faced. The development of artificial intelligence is moving faster than the UN can keep up with. The more regional our world becomes, the more impotent the UN becomes.

And yet, (some) countries are adopting nationalistic, closed-off technology ecosystems rather than building an international vision for the future of technology. Many countries prosecute their interests through like-minded regional groupings rather than international bodies. And as we saw this week, some governments feel more free than ever to abandon their voluntarily-adopted climate targets.

The good news is that ‘we’ all built the UN from the ashes of World War II to meet a specific challenge at a specific moment. If we’re brave enough to consider that our institutions might no longer be fit for purpose, then there’s no reason we can’t build new institutions to meet our specific challenges in our specific moment. Or, at the very least, reform the ones we have.

5. UN General Assembly is the hook, but not the point

(Ethan Plotkin - Intrigue’s reporter inside the UN building this week - shares his reflections.)

I was initially disappointed that the closest I got to the leaders’ speeches was a nondescript seat in the very top back section of the Assembly Hall.

Don’t get me wrong - it’s been a fascinating week. It was a career highlight to ask questions of the Secretary-General’s spokesperson, the European Council President, and Jordan’s Foreign Minister.

But for the most part, I’ve been shooed away from the side meetings and impromptu chats that are constantly happening throughout the building.

Upon reflection, I realised that the High-level Week at UNGA is the only event in the world with the power to bring so many world leaders with so many different interests under the same roof.

Maybe all they do when they arrive in New York City is make a quick speech, have a few meetings, and shake a few hands. But even still, I think there’s something important - almost ritualistic - about all the world’s leaders coming to the same place to talk.

I think I understand why people say that the most important thing leaders can do is show up.

Quote of the day

Hochstein is responsible for advising President Biden on energy issues in a way that creates prosperity and as little disruption as possible (ambitious, I know).

Hochstein also made a strong case for nuclear energy: “It’s hard for me to imagine us getting to net zero without having nuclear. I believe not only should we support nuclear, but we should be out there and making it happen.”

He also talked about including the Global South in any solutions (a recurring theme for US officials this week): “I worry we talk too much about what we’re doing in the United States, Europe and Japan, but not enough about how we do this in Sub-Saharan Africa and beyond…”.

I asked, and you answered

I asked you three poll questions over the week. Here’s how you answered:

Is the UN right to focus on the world’s Sustainable Development Goal failures?

✅ Yes, it’s the only way to motivate countries to action. (56%)

❌ No, the world needs encouragement not chastising. (44%)

Is expanding the permanent seats at the UNSC a good idea?

👍 Yes, even if symbolic it’s important (77%)

👎 No, it will make getting anything done even harder (10%)

💤 The UN is a waste of energy and countries should focus diplomatic efforts elsewhere (9%)

Do you think the UN has a role in regulating AI?

✅ Yes, the destructive potential of AI is what the UN was designed to regulate! (41%)

❌ No, it is too slow and will only make things worse if it tries. (59%)

Today’s intriguing events

• It’s the last day of speeches. The big draw is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - I’ll be watching for comments on Saudi normalisation, Iran, and relations with Palestine. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong will likely talk about UN reform, but I’m also watching for any mention of the Pacific region. Later, Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden of the UK will step in for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has received a significant amount of flack (from me) for his absence.

• 78th UNGA High-Level Side Event on Social Business, Youth and Technology: Young people are known for their imagination and creativity, perhaps creating solutions in ways we could not have expected, which is why this event will look at ways to further the solutions of young people by creating intergenerational partnerships.

• Achieving #GapZero: Evidence-driven inclusive governance in Africa: Issues of female leadership representation are not exclusive to one place, but many of the barriers are particularly bleak across the African continent. By bringing together leaders across the content at this in-person gathering, there is hope to set out a renewed commitment to inclusivity.

Unscramble: Uh… where am I?

Can you unscramble these anagrams? The resulting words are all foods on the UNESCO Intangible Cultural Heritage list! (Pssst… the flags should give you a hint.)

1. 🇫🇷 gate tube

2. 🇲🇼 mains

3. 🇺🇦 BS torch

4. 🇳🇬 frolic joel

Thank you so much for riding with me this week. Goodbye from New York!

A: 1) Baguette; 2) Nsima; 3) Borscht; 4) Jollof rice